---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Dr. Nathaniel A. Frissell Ph.D. <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Tue, Aug 30, 2022 at 10:11 AM
Subject: [HamSCI] Seminar About Solar Cycle 25 & Solar Eclipse QSO
Party (SEQP) 2023-2024 Planning Kickoff Telecon Thursday at 2000z
To: [log in to unmask] <[log in to unmask]>


Hi everyone!



This Thursday, Sept 1 at 4 PM Eastern (2000z) will be the first of our
weekly Solar Eclipse QSO Party Planning telecons! Please join us at
the following Zoom link:
https://scranton.zoom.us/j/286316405?pwd=QWdwMlFPbDlYeXg5ZDg1dmYzeFdCUT09

The next solar eclipses will be October 14, 2023 (Annular) and April
8, 2024 (Total).



We will start off with a seminar regarding the upcoming Solar Cycle
25, given by Frank Howell K4FMH. It will be important to understand
the background propagation conditions generated by the new solar cycle
when interpreting the upcoming SEQP data.



I look forward to seeing you there!



73 Nathaniel W2NAF





Dr. Frank Howell K4FMH will present a seminar based on his two-part
article in the July & August 2022 issues of the Radio Society of Great
Britain’s RadCom journal, written with Dr. Scott McIntosh of NCAR in
Colorado, titled, “On the Cusp of a Scientific Revolution?” The
seminar includes the latest theory construction and model estimation.
The seminar will be held on September 1, 2022 at 4 PM Eastern (2000z)
during the weekly Solar Eclipse QSO Party Zoom Telecon. Frank is
Professor Emeritus at Mississippi State University, Affiliated Faculty
at Emory University, and a scientific member of HamSCI.

Abstract: Sunspots are the Dow Jones Industrial Index for hams. We are
faithful to the sine wave model of the approximate 11-year cycle with
the official NASA/NOAA predictions being our Holy Grail. I’ll address
the following issues. How did we get to this sine wave conception? How
do scientific paradigms compete and change? A new competing paradigm
by the McIntosh team has been proposed. What’s new? What’s both the
theoretical and empirical basis for this Kuhnian revolution in
predictions? For Cycle 25, I’ll compare the official NASA/NOAA versus
McIntosh team projections of SSNs and how they are constructed. I’ll
also show how they compare to observed sunspots in the Cycle. Can we
now better predict the underlying phenomena driving the amplitude and
transition of a cycle? This model competition may well parallel the
Newton-Einstein paradigm clash a century ago where science hung in the
balance while solar eclipse photo plates were taken in Brazil and the
Island of Principe. Now, we can follow along and see: will there be a
scientific revolution in sunspot prediction?





-----------------------------------------------

Dr. Nathaniel A. Frissell, Ph.D., W2NAF

HamSCI Lead / Assistant Professor
Department of Physics and Electrical Engineering
University of Scranton
(973) 787-4506